04 Oct 2024
GBP/USD trades flat above 1.3100 as traders brace for US NFP data
The GBP/USD pair struggles to gain ground near 1.3125 during the Asian session on Friday. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the US employment data, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings, which are due later on Friday.
Shifting expectations for the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next move might lift the US Dollar (USD) against the Pound Sterling (GBP) in the near term. The US employment data might offer some hints about the size of the November Fed rate cut. Analysts estimated a 140k increase in the NFP report, while the Unemployment Rate and the Average Hourly Earnings growth remain steady at 4.2% and 3.8%, respectively. An upside surprise outcome could dampen the hope for a 50 basis point (bps) rate reduction in the November meeting.
The rising Middle East tensions could boost the safe haven flows and benefit the Greenback. CNN reported on Thursday that an attack in central Beirut killed nine people, marking Israel's first strike in the region since 2006. The Israeli military vows to continue targeting Hezbollah in Beirut and southern Lebanon, after more airstrikes in the capital on Thursday.
On the GBP’s front, the dovish comments by Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey on Thursday might undermine the GBP. Bailey said the prospect of the BoE becoming a “bit more aggressive” in cutting interest rates as the development of inflation continued to be good. The BoE is widely expected to cut the policy rate by 25 bps at the November meeting, and the odds of the December meeting increased.
